As I compose this, I find myself in Louisville, Kentucky. This Saturday marks the 151st Kentucky Derby, and we’re hosting Fantasy Football Happy Hour from Churchill Downs. You can tune in at your convenience on the NFL on NBC YouTube channel or catch it wherever you find your podcasts.
I point this out because I’m not crafting an introductory tale this week. If I did, there would be less time for Mint Juleps, wouldn’t there? I’m being more efficient here, not putting in more effort.
If you want to see my dynasty rookie rankings for Superflex and 1QB leagues, you can check them out here.
I need to give a shout out to my friends at FantasyLife.com, particularly Dwain McFarland, whose Rookie Super Models for every position are constantly essential viewing.
Alright, let’s dive straight in. This is a “post draft” Love/Hate with a premise that varies somewhat from the norm. This focuses on how the NFL draft unfolded for individual players. Players whose fantasy value increased due to the NFL draft are termed “Loves,” while those whose fantasy value declined following the NFL draft are included in the Hate List.
Understood? Great. If there’s a horse you fancy for The Oaks (Friday) or the Kentucky Derby (Saturday), reach out to me on social media; I’m @MatthewBerryTMR on all platforms except the Bleacher Nation Fantasy App, where I’m just @MatthewBerry.
I appreciate my producer Damian Dabrowski for his assistance at different stages in this column, as always.
Sure! Please provide the text you would like me to paraphrase.
Here we go:
Quarterbacks I Love Post Draft
Caleb Williams, Chicago
The Bears utilized the 2025 NFL Draft to further develop their team around the 2024 No. 1 overall selection, drafting two offensive tackles, a dynamic slot receiver in Luther Burden III, and a playmaking tight end in Colston Loveland. Everything mentioned is sufficient to place Caleb Williams into … just wait for it … Love land. (Hey, it’s the break.) You receive jokes of offseason quality. Remember: Chicago also brought in three additional offensive linemen before the draft—Joe Thuney, Jonah Jackson, and Drew Dalman. With the addition of new head coach Ben Johnson, Williams now has all the support necessary to make significant progress in 2025.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay
Four years ago, Baker Mayfield was the quarterback for one of the most troubled franchises in professional sports while residing in the Browns stadium (if those Progressive ads were accurate). At this moment? He arguably possesses the finest group of receivers in football, while the Browns have a greater number of quarterbacks than available seats in their stadium. Untamed moments. Admittedly, being chosen by Tampa isn’t favorable for Emeka Egbuka’s short-term fantasy potential because of the many other players in that offense. However, it’s difficult to imagine how circumstances could improve for Mayfield. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin … and now Egbuka and Jalen McMillan as his third and fourth wide receivers? And a rising Cade Otton at tight end? So, he has left the Browns stadium and moved into a real home? Nowadays, it’s great to be Baker Mayfield.
Others receiving votes: The New York Jets focused on offense with three of their initial four selections (OT, TE, WR), but did not allocate any picks to a quarterback during the entire draft. In 2025, it’s all about Justin Fields. … Transitioning from Justin Fields to Justin Herbert.
The Chargers brought in three pass catchers during the draft: Tre Harris, KeAndre Lambert-Smith, and Oronde Gadsen II, finishing the overhaul of the LAC receiving corps that was nearly vacant before last year’s draft. Harris and Lambert-Smith also introduce another vertical aspect to the passing game, which aligns well with Justin Herbert, who ranked in the top 10 in aDOT last season. Perhaps 2025 will be the year of Justins. (Love you, Biebs.) … Although he had limited resources last season, Drake Maye still managed to score over 17 fantasy points in six out of his nine games played. Assistance has now come. The Patriots selected offensive players with their initial four picks, choosing two linemen, running back TreVeyon Henderson, and wide receiver Kyle Williams. … Bryce Young is facing a comparable situation in Carolina. During Weeks 8-18 of the previous season, he ranked QB14 in PPG (18.1) and recorded three games with over 23 fantasy points during that time. Currently, he has an exciting new asset in wide receiver Tetairoa McMillan, whom the Panthers selected No. 8 overall. Carolina additionally selected WR Jimmy Horn, Jr. and TE Mitchell Evans on Day 3. … Houston is another team that sensibly utilized early selections to supply tools for their young quarterback. The Texans selected two wide receivers and an offensive tackle with their initial three choices and subsequently included a pass-catching running back in Round 4. Last year might have seen a sophomore slump for C.J. Stroud, but this year could potentially be a junior … windfall? A youth gathering? A junior spaceflight-journey-to-the-moon? I’m not sure, alright?
A positive thing that begins with the letter “J.” I’ll continue to develop it throughout the summer. … Given Derek Carr’s noticeable injury, Spencer Rattler’s struggles late in the season, and the draft investment (40th overall, third QB chosen) the Saints made in Tyler Shough, there are many reasons to believe the rookie might be New Orleans’ starting quarterback in Week 1. Honestly, I might just say “Forget it” and include him in numerous dynasty leagues.
Quarterbacks I Hate Post Draft
Dak Prescott, Dallas
It seems you can’t question the Cowboys’ trust in Dak Prescott, as they provided him with virtually no support in the draft. Due to the absence of any selected wide receivers, Dak’s WR depth chart following CeeDee Lamb consists of Jalen Tolbert and KaVontae Turpin. I suppose it’s difficult to refer to that as depth. That’s the WR equivalent of a pool notice stating, “no diving allowed.” It’s not surprising that since 2021, Dallas has seen no other receiver besides Lamb achieve 700 receiving yards. It seems they aim to maintain that streak in 2025.
Shedeur Sanders, Cleveland
Despite the chance of Mel Kiper, Jr. shouting at me, I’m placing Shedeur Sanders on the Hate List. However, it’s not due to the possible causes for his decline in the draft that I’ve discussed previously. And it’s not due to his skills or athletic ability, regardless of how much or how little he possesses. This is because Sanders needs to outperform Joe Flacco, Kenny Pickett, and a player the Browns clearly prefer on film (as indicated by their selection of him 50 spots earlier) in Dillon Gabriel. I believe there’s no chance for the Browns to retain four QBs, so one of these players will not be part of the roster. Perhaps that individual is Sanders. And even if Sanders secures a spot on the team and promptly proves to be the top quarterback among them, what does he gain? It’s managing one of the most ineffective offenses in football. In the previous season, Cleveland was 28th in QB fantasy points. It’s possible that Sanders could become the Browns’ starting quarterback down the line, but it’s improbable he plays much early on in his career.
Running Backs I Love Post Draft
Ashton Jeanty, Las Vegas
It would be difficult to not feel thrilled about Ashton Jeanty’s fantasy potential regardless of where he was picked in the draft. Yet he coincidentally ended up being drafted into a perfect scenario. Let’s begin with the Raiders’ new offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly. During his four years as an NFL head coach, Kelly’s teams finished in the top seven for rushing attempts on three occasions. In Kelly’s three years with the Eagles, Philadelphia’s running backs placed fourth in fantasy points per game (27.7). This encompasses the 2013 season when LeSean McCoy topped the NFL in carries (314) and rushing yards (1,607). Jeanty has the ideal coordinator in Chip Kelly. He possesses the perfect draft capital, selected No. 6 overall. Here’s the thing: Since 2012, five out of the seven running backs selected in the top 10 averaged a minimum of 19 touches per game during their rookie seasons. All five of those seven concluded as top seven running backs in PPG. Indeed, Jeanty has many advantages. However, there is one thing he lacks? Any appearance of rivalry for touches. Raheem Mostert, Sincere McCormick, and Zamir White are the running backs listed behind him on the Raiders roster. Jeanty will take center stage immediately as a rookie. I rank him among the top five fantasy running backs and consider him a first-round choice.
Omarion Hampton, Los Angeles Chargers
I assure you that Omarion Hampton is not on the Love List solely because he might be the biggest person to have ever existed. (Refer to: photographic proof.) Alright, yes, that’s one of the reasons. However, I also appreciate him being selected for a Chargers offense that placed in the top 12 for both RB carries and RB rushing touchdowns last season and ranked 10th overall in rush rate. Indeed, the Chargers acquired Najee Harris during the offseason. However, a) it was for a one-year contract, whereas Los Angeles selected Hampton with the 22nd overall choice; and b) it’s Najee Harris. Harris will be … okay. However, all signs indicate that Hampton will be carrying the majority of the LAC ground game on his (very large) shoulders as the season moves on.
I assure you that Omarion Hampton is not on the Love List solely because he might be the biggest person to have ever existed. (Refer to: photographic proof.) Alright, yes, that’s one of the reasons. However, I also appreciate him being selected for a Chargers offense that placed in the top 12 for both RB carries and RB rushing touchdowns last season and ranked 10th overall in rush rate. Indeed, the Chargers acquired Najee Harris during the offseason. However, a) it was for a one-year contract, whereas Los Angeles selected Hampton with the 22nd overall choice; and b) it’s Najee Harris. Harris will be … okay. However, all signs indicate that Hampton will be carrying the majority of the LAC ground game on his (very large) shoulders as the season moves on.
Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland
Expect Quinshon Judkins to take on the Nick Chubb role during early downs in Cleveland’s offense. The Browns definitely didn’t use the 36th overall pick in the draft just to let Judkins observe Jerome Ford play football. Or for him to observe any of their quarterbacks throw. Remember, Chubb had an average of at least 17 touches per game during each of his four full seasons as a starter. Chubb also ranked as a top 12 RB in PPG across all four of those years. Coach Kevin Stefanski values (requires?) a robust run game, so despite some of the burden still going to Ford (or other rookie Dylan Sampson) this year, Judkins should see ample action and be a reliable RB2 as a newcomer.
RJ Harvey, Denver
As the 2025 NFL Draft approaches, Sean Payton has selected just three running backs prior to Day 3 during his tenure as head coach: Reggie Bush, Mark Ingram, and Alvin Kamara. RJ Harvey creates four. Not a terrible group to belong to. Another great group to be part of? Sean Payton’s rushing attack. Since becoming head coach in 2023, Payton’s Denver offense is in the top 10 for RB fantasy points (22.3 PPG). With just Jaleel McLaughlin, Audric Estime, and Tyler Badie listed as RBs alongside him, Harvey is expected to handle most of the workload. I have him in that lower-tier RB2 category alongside Judkins.
Kaleb Johnson, Pittsburgh
Kaleb Johnson is an excellent tactical match for Arthur Smith’s zone-running scheme. To steer clear of delving too deeply into the specifics, let’s simplify Smith’s approach to the run game by stating this: He enjoys it. Many. In four of the past five seasons as a head coach or offensive coordinator, Smith’s offenses have placed among the top three in rush attempts. His teams have accumulated over 500 RB touches in every one of the last three seasons. Thus, with Najee Harris leaving behind 299 touches and Pittsburgh utilizing the 83rd overall selection on the powerful Iowa talent, Johnson is expected to step right into that role. Indeed, Jaylen Warren will continue to play a role in the running game, but the Steelers view him primarily as a change-of-pace back. In his three-year career, Pittsburgh has allowed Warren to exceed 15 touches in a game only eight times. Johnson appears to fall within the RB20-26 range as a newcomer.
Others receiving votes: During the last eight games of the 2024 season, Chase Brown recorded an average of 20.6 PPG (ranking RB4 in that period) and had 23.6 touches each game. Cincinnati evidently appreciated what it observed, as the sole RB the Bengals picked was sixth-round choice Tahj Brooks. … One round after the Bengals chose Brooks, the Commanders picked their only running back of the draft in the seventh round. That’s a significant endorsement for Brian Robinson, who recorded an average of 13.9 PPG last season with 15 or more touches. … It appears the Chiefs remain fully committed to Isiah Pacheco. Although Kareem Hunt is still present, he is approaching 30. In the draft, the Chiefs largely overlooked the RB position, selecting only Brashard Smith in the seventh round. Meanwhile, the Cowboys picked Jaydon Blue in the fifth round and Phil Mafah in the seventh.
You’ll definitely want to keep an eye on the Cowboys’ RB workload during the preseason; however, given the minimal draft investment at the position, Javonte Williams remains the leading candidate for the RB1 role in Dallas. … The only football player as closely associated with insurance as Peyton Manning could be Christian McCaffrey. Because if you own McCaffrey, you surely require coverage. In 2025, the top McCaffrey insurance could very well be rookie Jordan James. He provides greater dependability than Isaac Guerendo, who is more fitting as a change-of-pace back. … Another rookie gamble I appreciate? Devin Neal. With just Kendre Miller and Clyde Edwards-Helaire as competition, he has a route to the RB2 role in New Orleans under Alvin Kamara. … And let’s consider one more, the longest shot of all, in Kyle Monangai. Certainly, D’Andre Swift and Roschon Johnson are the obvious leaders in Chicago, but Monangai might eventually fit into that David Montgomery position within Ben Johnson’s scheme. Keep in mind that throughout Ben Johnson’s three years as the offensive coordinator in Detroit, the Lions were at the top of the NFL in fantasy points for running backs.
Running Backs I Hate Post Draft
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England
In the previous season, Rhamondre Stevenson ranked 40th among eligible running backs in fantasy points per touch, and in matches where he had less than 15 touches, he averaged merely 5.0 PPG. Not great. That’s as dependent on volume as it’s possible to be. Perhaps Stevenson ought to be called “death metal,” as both his style of play and that genre thrive only with excessive volume. Regrettably for Stevenson’s coaches, his playing time will be significantly reduced this year due to the addition of TreVeyon Henderson. The newcomer is likely to assume the receiving position, and 34% of Stevenson’s fantasy points last season were due to receiving. Include some of the carries that will be allocated to Henderson, and Stevenson’s fantasy value in 2025 will be nearly insignificant.
Najee Harris, Los Angeles Chargers
I usually focus on fantasy advice in this column, but if I can provide a quick tip about real estate, it would be this: Perhaps Najee Harris ought to consider renting in Los Angeles rather than purchasing? Harris’ one-year contract and the draft assets the Chargers invested in Omarion Hampton indicate that L.A. won’t compel Harris to receive touches if – and when – Hampton excels beyond him. Harris is also finishing a season where he recorded a career low in fantasy points per touch. Actually, during the last two seasons, in matches where he has between 10 and 15 touches, Harris is averaging only 8.0 PPG. Similar to Stevenson, he requires a substantial workload to perform well in fantasy. Additionally, similar to Stevenson, he is likely not going to receive it.
Jaylen Warren, Pittsburgh
In 83% of his career games, Pittsburgh has provided Jaylen Warren with fewer than 15 touches, and he averaged only 10.5 touches per game in 2024. In the previous season, he accounted for under 20% of Pittsburgh’s red zone carries and merely 12% of their goal-line carries. Is Warren capable of managing a larger workload? Maybe. Will Pittsburgh hand it over to him? Highly unlikely. Kaleb Johnson is set to become the new Najee Harris in Pittsburgh, while Warren is expected to remain… the same Jaylen Warren. He has his position, and it seems that Pittsburgh isn’t planning to expand it.
Tyrone Tracy, New York Giants
Cam Skattebo’s abilities are likely to lead to significant involvement in the passing game and in goal-to-go situations, both of which will significantly reduce Tyrone Tracy’s workload. In the previous season, during matches where Tracy had less than 19 touches, he managed to score over 12 fantasy points only twice. While Tracy and Skattebo will handle most of the workload, remember that Devin Singletary is still in the mix, and the Giants can’t easily part ways with Singletary’s contract until the season concludes.
Travis Etienne, Jacksonville
Where should one begin with the negative updates for Travis Etienne? Let’s proceed in chronological order, beginning with last year when Tank Bigsby clearly surpassed Etienne as a runner. Now, let’s move ahead to the 2025 draft, where the Jaguars used two selections on running backs: fourth-rounder Bhayshul Tuten and seventh-rounder LeQuint Allen. Tuten is an excellent receiving back who, if he secures a spot on the team, could significantly challenge Etienne’s target share.
Pass Catchers I Love Post Draft
Travis Hunter, Jacksonville
Ending up at No. 2 with Jacksonville rather than No. 2 with Cleveland was the most favorable result for Travis Hunter. Trevor Lawrence surpasses Cleveland’s Frankenquarterback, and Brian Thomas, Jr. is the sole player on Jacksonville’s lineup who received more than 53 targets last season. Therefore, there are goals to achieve. I also appreciate Hunter in Liam Cohen’s offense. In the previous season, the Bucs secured the third position in WR fantasy points, despite Mike Evans and Chris Godwin missing a total of 13 games. Tampa Bay ranked first in the league for wide receiver yards gained on screens, and Hunter produced significantly on screens during his college career. Perhaps the greatest part? Travis Hunter will never face off against top NFL cornerback Travis Hunter. I consider him a low-end WR2 in his rookie season in 2025.
Tetairoa McMillan, Carolina
In the previous season, the Panthers were among the top eight in wide receiver target share and red zone targets for WRs. They now possess a 6-foot-4 receiver capable of jumping and featuring an expansive catch radius. I appreciate that advantage. I also appreciate Tetairoa McMillan’s draft value as the eighth overall selection. Here’s the scoop: The previous eight wide receivers selected in the top 10 all received over 100 targets in their rookie seasons. I’m placing McMillan alongside Hunter in 2025 within that WR18-24 bracket.
Calvin Ridley, Tennessee
Calvin Ridley will greatly benefit from receiving throws from Cam Ward. I mean, consider how pleasant it will be for him to no longer need to catch footballs smeared in mayonnaise. However, my examination goes further than just egg-based sauces. Likewise, as Ridley expands defenses. In 2024, Ridley topped all NFL wide receivers with 60 deep targets, and his 15.7 aDOT was the second highest for the position. Currently, he is teamed up with Ward, who achieved the fourth-highest number of completions in college last season for passes over 20 air yards. Although Ridley is 30, the Titans appear to not be very concerned. They signed Tyler Lockett, who is two years older, and then waited until the fourth round to draft a receiver. With minimal competition for targets, Ridley will excel. In the previous season, during matches where his target share was at least 20%, he averaged 13.8 points per game.
Jerry Jeudy, Cleveland
The depth chart for wide receivers in Cleveland, following Jerry Jeudy, includes Cedric Tillman, Diontae Johnson, Michael Woods, and Jamari Thrash. Perhaps the Browns will leverage their quarterback surplus to enhance their wide receiver depth chart. I’m certain I would enjoy watching Joe Flacco execute fly patterns. I suppose we will need to wait and find out. Regardless, there’s a reason Jeudy received 145 targets last year – ranking seventh among wide receivers – and why he could see even more this year. Incidentally, in Jeudy’s games from last season where he received six or more targets? He had an average of 16.4 points per game.
Colston Loveland, Chicago
Throughout Ben Johnson’s time as the offensive coordinator for Detroit from 2022 to 2024, the Lions stood eighth in fantasy points for tight ends. During that period, Lions tight ends collectively recorded 32 receiving touchdowns, which ranks second most in the NFL. Therefore, when Johnson mentioned that he recognizes numerous resemblances between Sam LaPorta and Colston Loveland? Oh, darling. I’m fully committed. I’m also completely done with Cole Kmet, whose contract allows him to exit after the 2025 season.
Others receiving votes: The Raiders likely identified their No. 2 WR with the 58th overall selection in Jack Bech. In the previous season, Tre Tucker placed in the top 10 for routes executed. Bech ought to assume that position in the offense. And it’s worth mentioning that as a freshman in 2021 on an LSU squad featuring Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas, Jr., and Kayshon Boutte, Bech topped the Tigers in receptions. … Quentin Johnston was among the lowest 10 in catch rate among wide receivers with over 90 targets last season. Thus, it’s feasible that Tre Harris may quickly replace Johnson as the Chargers’ WR2. I particularly admire his abilities as a new deep ball option for Justin Herbert. … Demario Douglas is the sole Patriots WR returning who received over 70 targets last season. Although Stefon Diggs is currently with the Patriots, he is recovering from a torn ACL. This indicates that the depth chart is completely open for Kyle Williams to create an impact in New England. Williams’ pace adds a crucial aspect to the Patriots’ offense. … The Cowboys chose not to pick any WRs during the draft. That’s unfortunate for Dak Prescott, but beneficial for Jalen Tolbert. He is the sole wide receiver on the roster, apart from CeeDee Lamb, who received more than 55 targets last year. … Courtland Sutton, at 30, is in the last year of his contract, whereas Marvin Mims, Jr. and Devaughn Vele are not primary receivers.
This opens up opportunities for fantasy production in Denver for third-round selection Pat Bryant. … One must feel optimistic about any promising young receiver who joins the Chiefs. Even a middle-aged receiver lacking talent could achieve stats with Patrick Mahomes. (That’s what I continually tell their GM, but he no longer answers my calls.) Regardless, Jalen Royals has even greater potential given that Rashee Rice is recovering from an injury, Hollywood Brown is signed for only a year, and they will probably want to reduce Travis Kelce’s playing time in the regular season.… Following Garrett Wilson, the Jets’ WR depth chart consists of Allen Lazard and Josh Reynolds. Therefore, it shouldn’t be a shock if Mason Taylor, the third tight end chosen in the draft, quickly turns into the No. 2 option in the Jets’ offense. … The Rams made tight end Terrance Ferguson their first pick of the draft, selecting him 46th overall. With Tyler Higbee and Colby Parkinson on contracts ending, Ferguson is undoubtedly the future TE for the Rams. … Cleveland was among the top 10 in slot targets last year, led in that area by Elijah Moore. He just signed with the Bills, which means Harold Fannin, Jr. will probably take on that role.
Receivers I Dislike After the Draft
DJ Moore, Chicago
The inclusions of Colston Loveland and Luther Burden III suggest that reliable targets may be hard to find. DJ Moore is experiencing the lowest career averages in yards per target and yards per route run. Is it even more problematic for Moore? Burden is fundamentally more … Moore. Their areas of expertise intersect. In the previous season, over 60% of Moore’s receiving yards were gained after the catch, and he topped the NFL in screen targets. That was fundamentally Burden’s performance at Missouri, and the second-round selection Chicago utilized on Burden indicates that Ben Johnson already has a favorable opinion of him. We still do not know his feelings regarding Moore.
Chris Godwin and Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay
Tampa’s selection of Emeka Ebuka is a football decision that benefits actual football but is largely detrimental for fantasy football. Indeed, it enhances Baker Mayfield’s fantasy outlook, as mentioned earlier. However, unfavorable for all others. The Ebuka selection might leave you questioning whether Godwin’s recovery from injury has taken a step back. At a minimum, the Bucs will now experience no urgency to hurry him back from his injury. What about Jalen McMillan? He could be the top WR4 in football. However, that renders a player nearly useless in fantasy. We previously observed how receiver depth negatively impacted McMillan last season. Keep in mind that during the five matches McMillan participated in while Godwin was active, he posted a meager 4.1 PPG and recorded a 9% target share with a route participation rate of merely 63%. And now Ebuka is in the game, as well? Not the best option
Tank Dell, Houston
Due to a devastating knee injury in which most any and everything in a human knee was damaged, Tank Dell was already on track to miss the bulk of the 2025 season. So, it would be no surprise if the Texans sought fill-ins. But it seems more like they went out and got permanent replacements in Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel. If, and hopefully when, Dell returns to action, he will return to what will be a greatly reduced role in the Houston offense.
Tyler Warren, Indianapolis
The do-everything Penn State tight end was drafted into an offense that will make it a challenge to do much of anything. The Colts are a run-first team that ranked 27th in pass attempts last season. And while Warren can contribute on the ground, he’s in an offense that obviously likes to feed Jonathan Taylor first and will include a quarterback – no matter if it’s Anthony Richardson or Daniel Jones – who can grab a share of carries, as well. There is also a lot of competition in Indianapolis for the limited targets the passing game provides. Last season, the Colts had two wide receivers with 100-plus targets and four with 55-plus. And it will be even worse for Warren if Richardson gets the job due to Richardson’s accuracy issues. Last season, Richardson ranked last among qualified QBs in completion percentage, off-target rate, and passer rating. I love Warren in fantasy long term, but it’s hard to see him popping until the Colts upgrade their QB room.